Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

The variance of New Zealand’s real GDP has declined since the mid-1980s. To investigate why, this paper decomposes the variance of chain-weighted estimates of production-based real GDP growth into sector shares, sector growth rate variances and co-variances. The principal explanation for the decline in GDP volatility is a fall in the sum of sector variances driven by a decline in the Services and Manufacturing sector production growth variances. Sector co-variances have had a dominant influence on the profile of GDP volatility and this influence has not diminished. Despite marked changes in sector shares, notably increases in Services and Primary sector shares and a decrease in the share of Manufacturing, this has not been a significant factor influencing the decline in GDP volatility. We postulate that policy interventions such as “Think Big”, regulatory interventions during the early 1980s, and the introduction of GST are key explanations for the higher volatility until the mid 1980s. Cessation of these interventions, deregulation and possibly changes in inventory management methods are important reasons why GDP volatility has fallen since then.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2001/01-33/twp01-33.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 01/33.

as in new window
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:01/33

Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Volatility; growth; production sector shares; manufacturing; services; primary; construction.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Romer, Christina D, 1991. "The Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series, 1889-1984," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-31, February.
  2. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
  3. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  5. Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 11-60.
  6. Allsop, Christopher & Vines, David, 2000. "The Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, Winter.
  7. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  10. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June.
  11. Francisco Nadal-De Simone, 2001. "An Investigation of Output Variance Before and During Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 01/215, International Monetary Fund.
  12. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Margaret M. McConnell & Patricia C. Mosser & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1999. "A decomposition of the increased stability of GDP growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Aug).
  14. John Taylor, 2000. "Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  16. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1129, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Edda Claus & Iris Claus, 2005. "New Zealand'S Economic Reforms And Changing Production Structure," CAMA Working Papers 2005-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Peter Mawson, 2002. "Measuring Economic Growth in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/14, New Zealand Treasury.
  4. Iris Claus, 2003. "Changes in New Zealand's Production Structure: An Input Output Analysis," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/01, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Grimes, Arthur, 2006. "A Smooth Ride: Terms of Trade, Volatility and GDP Growth," Occasional Papers 06/4, Ministry of Economic Development, New Zealand.
  6. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:01/33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.