This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
M. V. Cacdac Warnock
Francis E. Warnock
Abstract

This paper attempts to add to the understanding of changes in the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations by examining disaggregated employment data. Specifically, we use a stochastic variance approach on monthly employment data for the 1946-1996 period to highlight two stylized facts of aggregate U.S. employment - greater volatility in recessions than expansions and reduced volatility since the early 1980s. These patterns are not, however, apparent in each sector of the economy. Asymmetric volatility is only evident in manufacturing and trade; other sectors, such as construction or the narrowly defined services sector, are just as likely to exhibit high volatility in expansions. A general reduction in volatility is evident only in goods-producing sectors; some industries in the broad service-producing sector have become more volatile over time. Our results highlight the close relationship between aggregate and manufacturing volatility, and suggest that to understand why the U.S. business cycle has become more muted, researchers should strive to understand the forces at work that are reducing volatility in the manufacturing sector.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2000/677/default.htm
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2000/677/ifdp677.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 677.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:677

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Business cycles ; Employment (Economic theory);

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1986. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 519-582 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  2. Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1995. "The differential effects of monetary policy shocks on regional economic activity," Working Papers 95-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Andrew J. Filardo, 1995. "Recent evidence on the muted inventory cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 27-43. [Downloadable!]
  5. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-19, January.
  6. Joseph A. Ritter, 1994. "Job creation and destruction: the dominance of manufacturing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ruiz, Esther, 1994. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 289-306, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  6. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence," Working Papers 05-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  7. Colm Kearney & Frank Barry, 2005. "MNEs and Industrial Structure in Host Countries:A Mean Variance Analysis of Ireland’s Manufacturing Sector," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp023, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  8. M. Sensier & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth," Econometric Institute Report 219, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. D.J. van Dijk & D.R. Osborn & M. Sensier, 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Report 282, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Andrew Eggers & Yannis Ioannides, 2004. "The Role of Output Composition in the Stabilization of U.S. Output Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0422, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors can create their own profile with links to their works on the RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.