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Fiscal and monetary policy, unfortunate events, and the SGP arithmetics - Evidence from a growth-gaps model

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Author Info
Edoardo Gaffeo
Giuliana Passamani
Roberto Tamborini ()

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Abstract

The recent revision (March 2005) of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has confirmed the 3% deficit/GDP ratio as the pillar of the excessive deficits procedure envisaged by the Maastricht Treaty for member countries of the EMU. Since the deficit/GDP ceiling is still in place, research on its implications for fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stabilization has to be pushed further. We argue that the agenda largely involves empirical matters. In particular, this paper presents an econometric estimate and simulations of a macroeconomic model of Italy and Germany aimed at addressing three issues. First, monetary and fiscal rules intercations are explictly modelled and examined in dynamic setting. Second, consistently with common perception and the new formulation of the SGP, the business cycle and the responses of policy variables are cast in terms of growth gaps, not gaps in levels, with respect to potential. Third, budgetary components (primary expenditure and total tax revenue) are examined as separate fiscal rules, which allows us to track the reaction of the fiscal stance to growth shocks more precisely, to point out several pitfalls in current measures of fiscal ratios to GDP, and suggest more accurate assessment of fiscal stances.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 0519.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpde:0519

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Stability and Growth Pact;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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  1. V. Anton Muscatelli & Tiziano Ropele & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints," Working Papers 83, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Artis, Michael J & Buti, Marco, 2000. ""Close to Balance or in Surplus": A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," CEPR Discussion Papers 2515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Allsop, Christopher & Vines, David, 2000. "The Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, Winter.
  6. Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Franco, Daniele, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: Grand Design or Internal Adjustment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Favero, Carlo A, 2002. "How do European Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Franco, Daniele, 2005. "The stability pact pains : a forward-looking assessment of the reform debate," Discussion Paper 101, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
  15. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jacques Melitz, 2005. "Non-Discretionary and Automatic Fiscal Policy in the EU and the OECD," Working Papers 2005-10, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy: A linear-quadratic approach," Working Paper Series 345, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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