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The “Great Moderation” and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Chile

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Author Info
Cristina Betancour
Jose De Gregorio
Juan Pablo Medina

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the significant reduction in the volatility of output growth and inflation seen in the Chilean economy in the present decade. This reduced volatility, sometimes called the “great moderation,” coincides with several important changes to the Chilean macroeconomic framework, including the establishment of a full-fledged inflation targeting regime for monetary policy and a rule based on a target for the structural fiscal surplus. The paper examines the impact of these changes on the monetary transmission mechanism and explores how the “great moderation” has been affected by economic shocks and by the endogenous response of policy as reflected in the monetary transmission mechanism. The paper also reports results of a monetary vector autoregression model that finds important changes in the way shocks are transmitted to the Chilean economy.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 393.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:393

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. José De Gregorio & Alejandro Jara & Cristina Betancour, 2006. "Improving the Banking System: The Chilean Experience," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 16, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jorge Roldos, 2006. "Disintermediation and Monetary Transmission in Canada," IMF Working Papers 06/84, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 135-174. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rodrigo Alfaro & Helmut Franken & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara, 2003. "Bank Lending Channel and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: the Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 223, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Serge Jeanneau & Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "Domestic securities markets and monetary policy in Latin America: overview and implications," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability, volume 36, pages 140-163 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. James L. Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2009. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Working Papers 09-04, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bank for International Settlements and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 2008. "New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 36, Janvier-M. [Downloadable!]
  4. José De Gregorio, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Risk of Inflation: A View From Developing Countries," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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