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Why Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Correlated with the Rest of the World?

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Author Info
Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri

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Abstract

In this paper we do two things. First we document that over the last 40 years the U.S. business cycle has become less synchronized with the cycle in the rest of the world. Second we try to explain why this has happened. We use a general-equilibrium model as a tool to discriminate between two alternative explanations: (i) a change in the nature of real shocks, and (ii) an increase in U.S. financial integration with the rest of the world. Our results indicate that financial integration has played the major role in producing the observed changes in international co-movement.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/000282803321946813
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=AER&volume=93&issue=2&article=9&issue_date=May2003
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 63-69
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:2:p:63-69

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Arvanitis, Athanasios V & Mikkola, Anne, 1996. "Asset-Market Structure and International Trade Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 67-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael R. Pakko, 1996. "International risk sharing and low cross-country consumption correlations: are they really inconsistent?," Working Papers 1994-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ariel Burstein & Christopher Johann Kurz & Linda Tesar, 2004. "Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 522, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bejan, Maria, 2006. "Some Business Cycles Consequences of Signing Trade Agreements: The Case of NAFTA," MPRA Paper 2807, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barbara Pfeffer, 2008. "Do regional Trade and Specialization drive intra-regional Risk-Sharing?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200813, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  5. Carlos García & Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2006. "Stylized Facts of International Business Cycle Relevant for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 392, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2004. "Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America," IMF Working Papers 04/138, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark Crosby & Philip Bodman, 2005. "When the US Sneezes, Do We Need to Catch a Cold? Historical and Future Linkages between the Australian and US Business Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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