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Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day

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  • Mario J. Crucini
  • Mototsugu Shintani

Abstract

We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the represenative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To evaluate our procedure, we employ the bivariate error correction model of Cochrane (1994) to the member countries of the G-7 and Australia. Our estimates reveal, that to a close approximation, the stochastic trend component of GDP is consumption and the transitory component is the error correction term, which justifies the use of our saving-based measure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16075.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16075

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  1. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. George Evans & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Information, forecasts and measurement of the business cycle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10155, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Ravn, M.O., 1996. "Permanent and transitory shocks, and the UK business cycle," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9627, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  4. repec:ubc:bricol:92-23 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Shintani, M., 1993. "Cointegration and Tests Of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Japanese Evidence with International Comparisons," ISER Discussion Paper 0311, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0013, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  7. Ogaki, Masao & Park, Joon Y., 1997. "A cointegration approach to estimating preference parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 107-134.
  8. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
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  1. Measuring business cycles by saving for a rainy day
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2010-07-28 14:07:39

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