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Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day

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  • Mario J. Crucini
  • Mototsugu Shintani

Abstract

We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the represenative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To evaluate our procedure, we employ the bivariate error correction model of Cochrane (1994) to the member countries of the G-7 and Australia. Our estimates reveal, that to a close approximation, the stochastic trend component of GDP is consumption and the transitory component is the error correction term, which justifies the use of our saving-based measure.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16075.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16075

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  1. Ogaki, M. & Park, Y.Y., 1989. "A Cointegration Approach To Estimating Preference Parameters," RCER Working Papers 209, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Cogley, T. & Nason, J.M., 1992. "Effects of Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series : Implications for Business Cycle Research," UBC Departmental Archives 92-23, UBC Department of Economics.
  3. Ravn, Morten O, 1997. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks, and the UK Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 27-48, Jan.-Feb..
  4. Evans, George & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-254, April.
  5. Shintani Mototsugu, 1994. "Cointegration and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Japanese Evidence with International Comparisons," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 144-172, June.
  6. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0692, Econometric Society.
  7. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
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  1. Measuring business cycles by saving for a rainy day
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2010-07-28 14:07:39

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