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Permanent and transitory shocks, and the UK business cycle

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  • Ravn, M.O.

Abstract

In this paper the business cycle properties of UK data are investigated using a VAR technique. A Real Business Cycle (RBC) model is formulated. The model includes both permanent and transitory shocks to technology. The business cycle properties of the data and the model are investigated by deriving the expected changes over various forecast horizons from a VAR model. It is found, contrary to evidence in Rotemberg and Woodford (1996), that the model can account for many features of the data and that temporary shocks are pertinent in order to explain the business cycle moments. The main difference between theory and data is present in hours worked.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 9627.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 1996
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Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:9627

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Cited by:
  1. Erik Britton & Jens D J Larsen & Ian Small, 2000. "Imperfect competition and the dynamics of mark-ups," Bank of England working papers 110, Bank of England.
  2. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
  3. Edward Nelson, 2012. "The correlation between money and output in the United Kingdom: resolution of a puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2010. "Measuring business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 50, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Working Papers 2007-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Larsen, Jens & Katharine Neiss & Fergal Shortall, 2002. "Factor Utilisation and Productivity Estimates for the United Kingdom," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 120, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
  8. Warwick J McKibbin & Peter J Wilcoxen, 1997. "Macroeconomic Volatility In General Equilibrium," Departmental Working Papers 1998-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, revised Jun 1998.
  9. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CSEF Working Papers 182, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  10. Hasan Bakhshi & Jens Larsen, 2001. "Investment-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 129, Bank of England.
  11. Hasan Bakhshi & Jens Larsen, 2001. "Investment-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 49-80 Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2879-2888.
  13. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.

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