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Shocking Stories

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  • S. Levtchenkova
  • A. R. Pagan
  • J. C. Robertson

Abstract

The paper provides a survey of methods that decompose multivariate series into permanent and transitory components by using ideas drawn from the co‐integration literature. We adopt a two stage procedure to effect the decomposition. In the first stage a basic set of permanent and transitory components is formed by using standard definitions of the shocks which they are constituted from. The resulting measurements are not unique and further information needs to be employed to get uniqueness. Such information can come in many forms but a particularly important one involves the values of the long‐run multipliers for permanent shocks that are available from many calibrated models. A comparison of the methods of effecting the decomposition is performed using a well known data set.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Levtchenkova & A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998. "Shocking Stories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 507-532, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:5:p:507-532
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-6419.00066
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    2. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    3. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2003. "A nation divided? Price and output dynamics in English regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 651-677, May.
    4. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    6. Hoffman, Mathias, 2001. "The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 148-163, May.
    7. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
    9. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
    10. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2010. "Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day," NBER Working Papers 16075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2008. "Modeling Monetary Transmission in Switzerland with a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 197-246, June.
    12. Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
    13. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1998. "A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 8, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    14. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    15. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    16. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2009-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "Finite Sample Properties of Impulse Response Intervals in SVECMs with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. David Fielding & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 13(4), pages 488-517, December.
    19. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renée, 2009. "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1147-1160, November.
    20. Alessio Moneta & Doris Entner & Patrik O. Hoyer & Alex Coad, 2013. "Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 705-730, October.
    21. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Robertson, John C., 1998. "Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-142, December.
    23. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin, 2015. "Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates," Textos para discussão 401, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    24. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Bakri Abdul Karim, 2016. "Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(12), pages 45-67, JUNE.
    25. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Bakri Abdul Karim, 2016. "Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(3), pages 45-67, JUNE.

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