The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001
AbstractThis paper tests for the long-term and short-term relationships between fertility and relative cohort size for the United States using the annual time series data between 1913 and 2001. An error correction model, imbedded with the cointegration theory, is coupled with the general impulse response function. Empirical evidence on relationships is found lending support to the Easterlin hypothesis in that the change in relative cohort size is an important explanatory variable to include in studies of human fertility both in the short run and in the long-run for the United States. In addition, our results support the catching-up hypothesis and that the child tax deduction has been an important policy variable influencing births.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3587.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-14 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. Levtchenkova & A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998. "Shocking Stories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 507-532, December.
- Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Yongil Jeon & Michael P. Shields, 2005. "The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, 08.
- Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
- Macunovich, Diane J, 1998. "Relative Cohort Size and Inequality in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 259-64, May.
- Levtchenkova, S & Pagan, A R & Robertson, J C, 1998. " Shocking Stories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 507-32, December.
- Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
- Robert McNown & Sameer Rajbhandary, 2003. "Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 501-523, 08.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1995. "The Butz-Ward Fertility Model in the Light of More Recent Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 229-255.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
- Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001.
"A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, .
- Stephenson, E. Frank, 1998. "Average marginal tax rates revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 389-409, April.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Ermisch, John, 1989. "A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 737-760, April.
- George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-2.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.