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The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001

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  • Jeon, Yongil

    ()
    (Central Michigan University)

  • Shields, Michael P.

    ()
    (Central Michigan University)

Abstract

This paper tests for the long-term and short-term relationships between fertility and relative cohort size for the United States using the annual time series data between 1913 and 2001. An error correction model, imbedded with the cointegration theory, is coupled with the general impulse response function. Empirical evidence on relationships is found lending support to the Easterlin hypothesis in that the change in relative cohort size is an important explanatory variable to include in studies of human fertility both in the short run and in the long-run for the United States. In addition, our results support the catching-up hypothesis and that the child tax deduction has been an important policy variable influencing births.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3587.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3587

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Keywords: catching-up; age structure; relative cohort size; Easterlin hypothesis; child tax deduction;

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  1. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
  2. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, .
  3. Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9603, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
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  6. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M., Universite Aix-Marseille III 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  7. Cigno, Alessandro & Ermisch, John, 1989. "A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 737-760, April.
  8. Macunovich, Diane J, 1998. "Relative Cohort Size and Inequality in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 259-64, May.
  9. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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  11. Yongil Jeon & Michael P. Shields, 2005. "The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, 08.
  12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  13. Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
  14. Diane J. Macunovich, 1995. "The Butz-Ward Fertility Model in the Light of More Recent Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 229-255.
  15. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
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  17. George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-2.
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  21. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
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