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Is There a Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy?

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Author Info
Alan Auerbach

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Abstract

This paper reviews the state of discretionary fiscal policy. Among its findings are: (1) In recent years, U.S. discretionary fiscal policy appears to have become more active in response to both cyclical conditions and a simple measure of budget balance. (2) Considerable uncertainty remains about how large an impact discretionary fiscal policy has on output. (3) There is little evidence that discretionary fiscal policy has played an important stabilization role during recent decades. (4) Budgetary pressure may weaken the efficacy of expansionary fiscal policy. Conversely, contractionary fiscal policy might have a salutary effect on output. This possibility may be relevant for understanding the impact of fiscal policy in the 1990s, although the mechanism is unclear. (5) The automatic stabilizers embedded in the fiscal system have experienced little net change since the 1960s and have contributed to cushioning cyclical fluctuations. But the tax system has many attributes that weaken its potential role as an automatic stabilizer, particularly with respect to investment. (6) The government's reported fiscal position, to which fiscal policy appears responsive, represents a very poor measure of underlying fiscal balance.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9306.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9306

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hassett, Kevin, 1992. "Tax policy and business fixed investment in the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 141-170, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Working Papers 4765, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1999. "Searching for Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy," CSEF Working Papers 16, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Altshuler, Rosanne & Auerbach, Alan J, 1990. "The Significance of Tax Law Asymmetries: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 61-86, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Roberto Cardarelli & James Sefton & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "Generational Accounting in the UK," NIESR Discussion Papers 147, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel Feenberg, 2000. "The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 7662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Auerbach, Alan J, 1983. "Taxation, Corporate Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 905-40, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2001. "Consumer Response to Tax Rebates," NBER Working Papers 8672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Thomas J. Kniesner & James P. Ziliak, 2002. "Tax Reform and Automatic Stabilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 590-612, June. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 2003. "Forecasting exogenous fiscal variables in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Alan J. Auerbach, 2003. "Fiscal Policy, Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 10023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Claeys, 2005. "Policy mix and debt sustainability: evidence from fiscal policy rules," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/01, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Entrepreneurship," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 698, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Pereira, Manuel C, 2008. "Empirical evidence on the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in the US," MPRA Paper 17474, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2009. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pereira, Manuel C, 2009. "A new measure of fiscal shocks based on budget forecasts and its implications," MPRA Paper 17475, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "Commentary : Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 151-162. [Downloadable!]
  8. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Hacia un sistema de seguro social eficaz en América Latina: la importancia de una política fiscal anticíclica," RES Working Papers 4334, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alan J. Auerbach, 2009. "Implementing the New Fiscal Policy Activism," NBER Working Papers 14725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "The Nature and Role of Monetary Policy When Money Is Endogenous," Economics Working Paper Archive 374, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Doris Prammer, 2004. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations? An Appraisal of the Literature on Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy and a Case Study for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 35-52, October. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alan Auerbach, 2009. "US Fiscal Policy In Recession: What's Next?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 3-8, 07. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Carlos Marinheiro, 2008. "The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2005. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Stabilised? Evidence from a Panel of 12 European Countries and Some Implications for the Reform of the Pact," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," RES Working Papers 4333, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kalckreuth, Ulf von & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  18. Konrad Szelag, 2008. "A Single Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area: Vision or Utopia?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 46, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
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