This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Marwan Chacra
Maral Kichian
Abstract

The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada. As with other recent studies that examine this series, they adopt an error-correction framework. Estimations using non-linear least squares and quarterly data yield both a good model fit and good out-of-sample forecasts. Given the debate in the United States on whether the adoption by firms of new information-technology-based methods of inventory management led to a decline in the volatility of U.S. output growth, the authors examine this issue for Canada. Results of the heteroscedasticity-robust Quandt likelihood ratio test advocated by Stock and Watson (2002) reveal very different dates for structural breaks in the volatilities of the growth contribution of inventory investment and of Canadian output growth: 1984Q1 and 1991Q2, respectively. Thus, the authors conclude that the "inventory hypothesis" is likely not an important explanation for the decline in the volatility of Canadian GDP growth.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2004/wp04-39.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-39.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-39

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8899
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

Order Information:
Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Email:
Web: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/publication/pub_res.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Domestic demand and components; Econometric and statistical methods;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26. [Downloadable!]
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger, 2001. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," International Finance Discussion Papers 707, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Donald P. Morgan, 1991. "Will just-in-time inventory techniques dampen recessions?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Mar, pages 21-33. [Downloadable!]
  10. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  13. Alexandre Debs, 2001. "Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada," Working Papers 01-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hung-Hay Lau, 1996. "The role of inventory management in Canadian economic fluctuations," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1996(Spring), pages 31-44. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    Other versions:
  16. Claus, I., 1997. "Modelling the behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach," Working Papers 97-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Citation analysis on IDEAS includes online papers that are freely accessible and whose text could be automatically analyzed, currently about 210000 papers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.