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Least Squares Estimation and Tests of Breaks in Mean and Variance under Misspecification

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  • Jean-Yves Pitarakis

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the consequences of misspecification on the large sample properties of change-point estimators and the validity of tests of the null hypothesis of linearity versus the alternative of a structural break. Specifically this paper concentrates on the interaction of structural breaks in the mean and variance of a time series when either of the two is omitted from the estimation and inference procedures. Our analysis considers the case of a break in mean under omitted-regime-dependent heteroscedasticity and that of a break in variance under an omitted mean shift. The large and finite sample properties of the resulting least-squares-based estimators are investigated and the impact of the two types of misspecification on inferences about the presence or absence of a structural break subsequently analysed. Copyright Royal Economic Socciety 2004

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0312004.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 18 Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0312004

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win98; pages: 32
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Structural Break; Variance Shifts; Bootstrapping;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2001. "Structural Change In Ar(1) Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 87-155, February.
  7. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  9. Inclan, Carla, 1993. "Detection of Multiple Changes of Variance Using Posterior Odds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 289-300, July.
  10. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  12. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
  13. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Newey, Whitney K. & McFadden, Daniel, 1986. "Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 36, pages 2111-2245 Elsevier.
  18. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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Cited by:
  1. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Pierre Perron & Jing Zhou, 2008. "Testing Jointly for Structural Changes in the Error Variance and Coefficients of a Linear Regression Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  4. Oleg Glouchakov, 2006. "Joint change point estimation in regression coeffcients and variances of the errors of a linear model," Working Papers 2006_3, York University, Department of Economics.

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