The European Way Out of Recessions
AbstractThis paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger  and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2011-23.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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Threshold autoregression; bounce-back effects; asymmetric business cycles. JEL classification: E32; C22.;
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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