The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov-Switching Models
AbstractThis paper explores the various shapes the recoveries may exhibit within a Markov- Switching model. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed by Kim, Morley and Piger (2005) and extends the methodology by proposing i) a more flexible bounce-back model, ii) explicit tests to select the appropriate bounce-back function, if any, and iii) a suitable measure of the permanent impact of recessions. This approach is then applied to post-WWII quarterly growth rates of US, UK and French real GDPs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2011-02.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Bec Frederique & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-Switching models," THEMA Working Papers 2011-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-19 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003.
"Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions,"
2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Aghion, Philippe & Askenazy, Philippe & Berman, Nicolas & Cette, Gilbert & Eymard, Laurent, 2012.
"Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France,"
12490632, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2012. "Credit Constraints And The Cyclicality Of R&D Investment: Evidence From France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1001-1024, October.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2008. "Credit constraints and the cyclicality of R&D investment: Evidence from France," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586744, HAL.
- Aghion, P. & Askenazy, P. & Berman, N. & Cette, G. & Eymard, L., 2008. "Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France," Working papers 198, Banque de France.
- Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013.
"Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2012. "Inventory Investment and the Business Cycle : The usual Suspect," Working Papers 2012-09, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Bec, F. & Bessec, M., 2012.
"Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors,"
400, Banque de France.
- Frederique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2209-2222.
- Bec, Frédérique & Bessec, Marie, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11777, Paris Dauphine University.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013.
"Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2013-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun’s law," NBER Working Papers 19047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2012.
"The European way out of recession,"
360, Banque de France.
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