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The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov-Switching Models

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  • Frédérique BEC

    (Crest)

  • Othman BOUABDALLAH

    (Crest)

  • Laurent FERRARA

    (Crest)

Abstract

This paper explores the various shapes the recoveries may exhibit within a Markov- Switching model. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed by Kim, Morley and Piger (2005) and extends the methodology by proposing i) a more flexible bounce-back model, ii) explicit tests to select the appropriate bounce-back function, if any, and iii) a suitable measure of the permanent impact of recessions. This approach is then applied to post-WWII quarterly growth rates of US, UK and French real GDPs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2011-02.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2011-02

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  1. Aghion, P. & Askenazy, P. & Berman, N. & Cette, G. & Eymard, L., 2008. "Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France," Working papers 198, Banque de France.
  2. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Cited by:
  1. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.
  2. Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
  3. Bec, F. & Bessec, M., 2012. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Working papers 400, Banque de France.
  4. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The European Way Out of Recessions," THEMA Working Papers 2011-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  5. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

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