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Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law

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Author Info

  • Menzie Chinn
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

Cet article étudie la relation entre l’emploi et le PIB aux Etats Unis. Nous distinguons entre composantes cyclique et permanente de l’emploi via l’estimation d’une loi d’Okun non linéaire basée sur un modèle à correction d’erreur à transition lisse tenant compte simultanément des relations de long terme entre l’emploi et le PIB et de l’instabilité de court terme liée au cycle économique. Nos résultats, basés sur des prévisions conditionnelles hors échantillon, montrent que, depuis la sortie de la récession de 2008-2009, l’emploi aux Etats Unis est, en moyenne, environ 1% au-dessous du niveau donné par la relation d’équilibre de long terme entre l’emploi et le PIB.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2013-13.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-13

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Keywords: Okun’s Law; Trend Employment; Non-Linear Modeling;

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References

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  1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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  13. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2013. "Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?," NBER Working Papers 18668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
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Cited by:
  1. Jon D. Wisman & Aaron Pacitti, 2013. "Ending the Crisis With Guaranteed Employment and Retraining," Working Papers 2013-12, American University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.

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