The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models
AbstractThis paper explores the various shapes the recoveries may exhibit within a Markov-Switching model. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed by Kim, Morley and Piger (2005) and extends the methodology by proposing i) a more flexible bounce-back model, ii) explicit tests to select the appropriate bounce-back function, if any, and iii) a suitable measure of the permanent impact of recessions. This approach is then applied to post-WWII quarterly growth rates of US, UK and French real GDPs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 321.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Markov-Switching models; bounce-back effects; asymmetric business cycles.;
Other versions of this item:
- Frédérique BEC & Othman BOUABDALLAH & Laurent FERRARA, 2011. "The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 2011-02, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Bec Frederique & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-Switching models," THEMA Working Papers 2011-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
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- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003.
"Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions,"
2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Aghion, P. & Askenazy, P. & Berman, N. & Cette, G. & Eymard, L., 2008.
"Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France,"
198, Banque de France.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2012. "Credit Constraints And The Cyclicality Of R&D Investment: Evidence From France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1001-1024, October.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2008. "Credit constraints and the cyclicality of R&D investment: Evidence from France," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586744, HAL.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013.
"Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2013-12, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun’s law," NBER Working Papers 19047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law," Working Papers 2013-13, CEPII research center.
- Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011.
"The European Way Out of Recessions,"
THEMA Working Papers
2011-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013.
"Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2012. "Inventory Investment and the Business Cycle : The usual Suspect," Working Papers 2012-09, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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