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Exchange Rate Determination In Pakistan: Evidence Based On Purchasing Power Parity Theory

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Khan, Muhammad Arshad
Qayyum, Abdul

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Abstract

This paper presents the empirical evidence on purchasing power parity (PPP) for Pak-rupee vis-à-vis US-dollar exchange rate using Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration and bound testing approach to cointegration (Pesaran et al., 2001) over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. We find a considerable support for the existence of long-run PPP. Furthermore, the results of error-correction suggest that nominal exchange rate plays an important role in eliminating deviations from long-run PPP. The results further suggest that there is high degree of foreign exchange and goods markets integration. One major policy implication derived from the findings of this study is that the monetary authorities should contain money supply growth in order to stabilize prices and reduce balance of payments deficits.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6754.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Publication status: Published in Pakistan Economic and Social Review 2.44(2007): pp. 181-202
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6754

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Keywords: Exchange Rate Purchasing power parity Cointegration

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Levi, Maurice D., 1977. "Measurement errors and bounded OLS estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 165-171, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1996. "A Correct Test of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 671-682. [Downloadable!]
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  7. Crowder, William J., 1992. "Purchasing power parity over the modern float An application in higher order cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 313-318, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sean Becketti & Craig S. Hakkio & Douglas H. Joines, 1995. "Exchange rates in the long run," Research Working Paper 95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  12. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. John Pippenger, 1986. "Arbitrage and efficient markets interpretations of purchasing power parity: theory and evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 31-47. [Downloadable!]
  14. Boyd, Derick & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity: Econometric Issues and an Application to Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(3), pages 287-303, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pippenger, Michael K., 1993. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the case of Swiss exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 46-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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