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A Reexamination of Purchasing Power Parity: A Multicountry and Multiperiod Study

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Author Info
Craig S. Hakkio

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Abstract

This paper presents a systematic analysis of the purchasing power parity hypothesis (PPP). This hypothesis states that the exchange rate is equal to the ratio of the domestic price level to the foreign price level. It has recently been argued that PPP performs poorly in the 1970s. This paper examines several possible explanations for this poor performance . We examine PPF in the 1920s and the 1970s, using monthly and quarterly data, to see if the relationship has changed over time. We also examine PPP in a multi-exchange rate world, allowing a quite general error process so as to allow deviations from PPP to be autocorrelated and correlated across currencies. We are then able to examine the degree to which the world has become more interdependent. We also provide evidence that deviations from PPP may follow a random walk. Finally, the role of the U.S. dollar as base currency is examined. We find, in general, that PPP holds quite well as a long run proposition, but the deviations from PPP tend to persist.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0865.

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Date of creation: Mar 1982
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0865

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  1. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-78, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hakkio, Craig S, 1982. "Exchange Rate Determination and the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 681-86, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael R. Darby, 1980. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Work?," NBER Working Papers 0607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 143-206. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Baizhu Chen & Kien C. Tran, 1994. "Are We Sure That The Real Exchange Rate Follows A Random Walk? A Reexamination," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 33-44, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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