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Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Polish zloty

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  • Rubaszek, Michal

Abstract

In May 2004 Poland joined the European Union and is thereby committed to introduce the euro in the forthcoming years. The balance of costs and benefits of the euro adoption depends on the decision of the Polish and European authorities concerning the level of central parity in the ERM II, and subsequently the conversion rate of the zloty. In order to address the issue of an "ideal" level of the real exchange rate this paper proposes a model which is applied to estimate the level of the equilibrium of the zloty. The results indicate that at the end of 2004 the zloty was undervalued by 4.3%.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 126.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:126

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Keywords: conversion rate; equilibrium exchange rate; foreign trade model; cointegration;

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  1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Author-Name: Gernot J. Müller, 2004. "Current account dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 311, European Central Bank.
  5. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment: Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  6. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  7. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, 1st quart.
  8. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 62, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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