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REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries

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  • Frait , Jan
  • Komárek, Luboš

Abstract

The paper presents an analysis of the determinants of the real exchange rate with emphasis on its long-term aspects and searching for the equilibrium paths. It introduces the behavioral models of exchange rates (especially the BEER and the NATREX), that are alternatives to the often-used fundamental models of the FEER type. Authors constructed the theoretical and econometric behavioral model, which could analyze the medium-term and long-term dynamics of the real exchange rate. This paper also introduces real exchange rate as an indicator of convergence for transitional countries to EU countries and analyses the link between real exchange rate and double speed economy or deindustrialization, respectively. This analysis is relevant almost for all transitional countries now. The paper explains the appreciation trend of real exchange rates in transitional economies. It is identifying the set of factors that let to sustainable real appreciation of the Czech Koruna and also the set of factors that possibly caused unsustainable real depreciation in the past. There is also a set of arguments against any other rapid real appreciation of the Czech Koruna. The paper also tried to fuel these arguments by an econometric analysis, which used our behavioral model of the equilibrium real exchange rate. It was shown that the Czech real exchange rate was especially determined by real fundamental factors: productivity, terms of trade and world interest rates and foreign direct investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:596
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 216, European Central Bank.
    2. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2007. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 307-326, July.
    3. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
    4. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Current Account Adjustments and Real Exchange Rates in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 48901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tells Us about Acceding Economies," Working Papers IES 64, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    6. Luboš Komárek & Martin Motl, 2012. "Behaviorální a fundamentální rovnovážný měnový kurz české koruny [Behavioural and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(2), pages 147-166.
    7. K. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2012. "Sources Of Exchange Rate Volatility In The European Transition Economies. Effects Of Economic Crisis Revealed," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 270-282.
    8. Ota Melcher, 2015. "Trends in the CZK Development and AR(I)MA Forecasting," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(2), pages 3-21.
    9. Rajmund Mirdala, 2013. "Real Output and Prices Adjustments Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1064, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Are They Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," Working Papers IES 75, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
    11. Bouzid Amaira, 2021. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment of the Tunisian dinar," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 24(80), pages 2-23, June.
    12. Frenkel Michael & Koske Isabell, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, April.
    13. Hossain, Monzur, 2010. "Do Currency Regime and Developmental Stage Matter for Real Exchange Rate Volatility? A Cross-Country Analysis," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 33(4), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    15. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
    16. Martin Melecký & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 14(1), pages 105-121, May.
    17. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Roberto A. De Santis, 2004. "The Eastward Enlargement of the European Monetary Union," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 31, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    18. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ms. Piritta Sorsa & Dimitar Chobanov, 2004. "Competitiveness in Bulgaria: An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2004/037, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Colque H., Paul, 2006. "Fundamentos del Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio," Documentos de trabajo 4/2006, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    22. Aurel Iancu, 2008. "Nominal Convergence," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 53-73, November.
    23. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries," MPRA Paper 40910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Rajmund Mirdala, 2015. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in New EU Member Countries," FIW Working Paper series 160, FIW.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REAL EXCHANGE RATE ; TRANSITION ; CHEZCH REPUBLIC ; COMPETITIVENESS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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