REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries
AbstractThe paper presents an analysis of the determinants of the real exchange rate with emphasis on its long-term aspects and searching for the equilibrium paths. It introduces the behavioral models of exchange rates (especially the BEER and the NATREX), that are alternatives to the often-used fundamental models of the FEER type. Authors constructed the theoretical and econometric behavioral model, which could analyze the medium-term and long-term dynamics of the real exchange rate. This paper also introduces real exchange rate as an indicator of convergence for transitional countries to EU countries and analyses the link between real exchange rate and double speed economy or deindustrialization, respectively. This analysis is relevant almost for all transitional countries now. The paper explains the appreciation trend of real exchange rates in transitional economies. It is identifying the set of factors that let to sustainable real appreciation of the Czech Koruna and also the set of factors that possibly caused unsustainable real depreciation in the past. There is also a set of arguments against any other rapid real appreciation of the Czech Koruna. The paper also tried to fuel these arguments by an econometric analysis, which used our behavioral model of the equilibrium real exchange rate. It was shown that the Czech real exchange rate was especially determined by real fundamental factors: productivity, terms of trade and world interest rates and foreign direct investment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 596.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
REAL EXCHANGE RATE ; TRANSITION ; CHEZCH REPUBLIC ; COMPETITIVENESS;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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