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Price Convergence in EU-Accession Countries: Evidence from the International Comparison

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  • Martin Cihak
  • Tomas Holub

Abstract

The authors analyse price convergence in new EU countries. They estimate the price level elasticity with respect to the GDP in PPP to be 0.7–0.9 percent. They also analyse additional sources of price level convergence, such as terms-of-trade changes or price deregulation. The average speed of real exchange rate appreciation is estimated at about 3 percent a year, and its implications for fulfilling the Maastricht criteria are discussed. Focusing on adjustments in the structures of relative prices, the authors find that it may take about 10–25 years for new EU countries to converge to that of the least developed EU countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): 102 ()
Pages: 59-82

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2005-2tc

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation; prices; exchange rate; convergence; international comparison; Balassa-Samuelson model;

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References

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  1. Chen, Yi Vivian & Heston, Alan & Lipsey, Robert, 2000. "International and interarea comparisons of income, output and prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 363-364, December.
  2. Driffill, John & Mizon, Grayham E. & Ulph, Alistair, 1990. "Costs of inflation," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1013-1066 Elsevier.
  3. Martin Èihák & Tomáš Holub, 2001. "Price Convergence toward the EU: A Few Open Issues," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 51(6), pages 349-362, June.
  4. Asea, Patrick K & Corden, W Max, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: An Overview," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, October.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  6. Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  7. Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence to the EU: What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  10. Tomas Holub & Martin Cihak, 2003. "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  11. Debelle, Guy & Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from U.S. Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 132-52, February.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
  2. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova.
  3. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurník, 2006. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: How Unpleasant is Purgatory?," IMF Working Papers 06/154, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Roman Horváth & Kamila Koprnická, 2008. "Inflation Differentials in New EU Member States: Empirical Evidence," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 318-328, Oktober.
  5. Buli­r, Ales & Hurni­k, Jaromi­r, 2008. "Why has inflation in the European Union stopped converging?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 341-347.
  6. Jan Babeck� & Aleš Bulíř & Kateřina šmídková, 2009. "Sustainable real exchange rates in the new EU Member States: Is FDI a mixed blessing?," European Economy - Economic Papers 368, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. Robert Ambrisko & Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zl, 2010. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2010," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as10 edited by Dana Hajkova & Romana Zamazalova.
  8. Václav Žďárek, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Price Convergence of the Czech Republic and the New EU Member States towards the Euro Area," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 454-474.
  9. Balázs �gert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.

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