Inflation Differentials in New EU Member States: Empirical Evidence
AbstractIn this paper, the authors examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the new European Union member states vis-a-vis the euro area in 1997–2007. Their main results are as follows. Exchange rate appreciation and a higher price level in the new EU members is associated with a narrower inflation differential vis-a-vis the euro area, while a fiscal deficit and a positive output gap seem to contribute to a higher inflation differential. Nevertheless, the effect of price convergence on inflation differentials is found to be dominant in these countries, suggesting that a country with a price level 20 % below the euro area average is likely to exhibit inflation nearly one percentage point above that in the euro area. Overall, the authors´ results indicate that real convergence factors rather than cyclical variation are more important for inflation developments in the new EU members as compared to the euro area.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 58 (2008)
Issue (Month): 07-08 (Oktober)
inflation differentials; price convergence; exchange rate; new EU members; panel data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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