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Inflation Differentials in EU New Member States: An Empirical Evidence

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Author Info
Roman Horváth () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank)
Kamila Koprnická () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank)

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the new European Union member states vis-à-vis the euro area in 1997-2007. Our main results are as follows. Exchange rate appreciation and higher price level in the new EU members is associated with narrower inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area, while fiscal deficit and positive output gap seem to contribute to higher inflation differential. Nevertheless, the effect of price convergence on inflation differentials is found to be dominating in these countries suggesting that a country with price level 20% below the euro area average is likely to exhibit inflation nearly one percentage point above the euro area. Overall, our results indicate that real convergence factors rather than cyclical variation are more important for inflation developments in the new EU members, as compared to the euro area.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2008/24.

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Length: 15pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision: Oct 2008
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2008_24

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Related research
Keywords: inflation differentials; price convergence; exchange rate; New EU members; panel data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Libor Dušek & Juraj Kopecsni, 2008. "Policy Risk in Action: Pension Reforms and Social Security Wealth in Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia," Working Papers IES 2008/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An alternative reconsideration of macroeconomic convergence criteria for West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 11367, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Inflation differential in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) area:Implications for unionization," MPRA Paper 13045, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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