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Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2010

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick

Abstract

[Schwellenländer tragen die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft] Die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft hat im zweiten Halbjahr 2009 vor allem infolge einer raschen Expansion von Produktion und Handel in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern eine beträchtliche Dynamik erreicht. In den Industrieländern war der Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts allerdings weniger schwungvoll und wurde zudem von vorübergehenden Faktoren getrieben, deren Fortfall die Konjunktur im Prognosezeitraum dämpfen wird. So erwarten wir für 2010 weiterhin eine nur mäßige Ausweitung des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts, die mit 3,7 Prozent deutlich unter den in den Jahren vor der Krise verzeichneten Wachstumsraten bleibt. Für 2011 haben wir unsere Prognose vom Dezember sogar leicht - von 3,9 auf 3,6 Prozent - reduziert, da sich abzeichnet, dass die Wirtschaftspolitik in den Schwellenländern bereits recht bald gestrafft wird und der Produktionsanstieg in dieser Ländergruppe daher etwas geringer ausfällt als bislang prognostiziert. - [Schwache Konjunktur im Euroraum: Nur langsamer Abbau der Ungleichgewichte] Nach dem Einbruch im Winterhalbjahr 2008/09 stabilisierte sich die Produktion im Euroraum im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres 2009. Trotz der weiterhin expansiv ausgerichteten Geldpolitik zeichnet sich im Prognosezeitraum aber nur eine schwache Belebung ab. Die Wirtschaft wird von den Folgen von Verschuldungskrisen in einigen Mitgliedsländern belastet. Für das laufende Jahr erwarten wir einen Anstieg der Produktion um 0,7 Prozent. Im Euroraum ohne Deutschland wird die Dynamik noch etwas schwächer sein. Daran dürfte sich auch im Jahr 2011 kein starker Aufschwung anschließen. Mit Zuwachsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 1,5 Prozent im Euroraum und 1,4 Prozent im übrigen Euroraum wird sich die Konjunktur aber wohl leicht beleben. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Kiel Discussion Papers with number 476/477.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:476-477

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Cited by:
  1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2010. "Ist Griechenland noch zu retten? Und der Euro?," Kiel Policy Brief 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja & Petrick, Sebastian & Rickels, Wilfried, 2009. "Konjunktur für den Klimaschutz? Klima- und Wachstumswirkungen weltweiter Konjunkturprogramme," Kiel Discussion Papers 464, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Ferdinand Fichtner & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Christoph Große Steffen & Hendrik Hagedorn & Simon Junker & Vladimir Kuzin & Katharina Pijnenburg, 2011. "Frühjahrsgrundlinien 2011," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(14/15), pages 2-24.
  4. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Schwellenländer tragen die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45590, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Thomas Mirow & Gunther Schnabl & Michael Knogler & Klaus-Jürgen Gern, 2010. "Auswirkungen der Krise auf Schwellenländer: Welches Entwicklungsmodell hat sich bewährt?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(06), pages 03-17, 03.
  6. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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