Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union
AbstractThis paper analyses the long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union. First, we aim at establishing some stylized facts relating the regional dispersion in headline inflation rates in the euro area as well as in the main components of the consumer price index. We find that a relatively large proportion of it occurs in the Service category of the EU’s harmonized consumer price index (HICP). We then lay out a model of a monetary union with fully flexible prices, the long-run properties of which are analysed. Our model departs in several respects from the Balassa-Samuelson hypotheses. Our results are in contrast with the result that movements in the real exchange rate are mainly driven by regionally asymmetric productivity shocks in the traded sectors. Our results point instead to relative variations in productivity in the non-traded sector as the primary cause of price and inflation differentials, with shocks to productivity in the traded sector being largely absorbed by movements in the terms of trade in the regional economies. These shocks are also found to largely drive the variability of real wages at the country level.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5149.
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 11473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2005-08-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2005-08-13 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2005-08-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-08-13 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2005-08-13 (South East Asia)
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