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Inflation Differentials in EU New Member States: An Empirical Evidence

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  • Roman Horvath
  • Kamila Koprnicka

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of the newEuropean Union member states vis-??-vis the euro area in 1997-2007. Our main results are as follows. Exchange rate appreciation and higher price level in the new EU members is associated with narrower inflation differential vis-??-vis the euro area, while fiscal deficit and positive output gap seem to contribute to higher inflation differential. Nevertheless, the effect of price convergence on inflation differentials is found to be dominating in these countries suggesting that a country with price level 20% below the euro area average is likely to exhibit inflation nearly one percentage point above the euro area. Overall, our results indicate that real convergence factors rather than cyclical variation are more important for inflation developments in the new EU members, as compared to the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horvath & Kamila Koprnicka, 2008. "Inflation Differentials in EU New Member States: An Empirical Evidence," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp937, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2008-937
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU [‘European financial integration and equity returns: a theory-based assessment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394.
    2. Balazs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp895, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Égert, Balázs, 2008. "Prices and Price Convergence in Emerging Europe: an Overview," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 204, pages 66-84, April.
    4. Altissimo, Filippo & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    6. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2007/257, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
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    9. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An alternative reconsideration of macroeconomic convergence criteria for West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 11367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Regional Inflation (Price) Behaviors: Heterogeneity and Convergence," MPRA Paper 25430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2011. "Heterogeneity and convergence of regional inflation (prices)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 711-723.
    4. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Inflation differential in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) area:Implications for unionization," MPRA Paper 13045, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation differentials; price convergence; exchange rate; New EU members; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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