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Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies

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Author Info
Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie D. Chinn
Eiji Fujii

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Abstract

We evaluate whether the Renminbi (RMB) is misaligned, relying upon conventional statistical methods of inference. A framework built around the relationship between relative price and relative output levels is used. We find that, once sampling uncertainty and serial correlation are accounted for, there is little statistical evidence that the RMB is undervalued, even though the point estimates usually indicate economically significant misalignment. The result is robust to various choices of country samples and sample periods, as well as to the inclusion of control variables. We then update the results using the latest vintage of the data to demonstrate how fragile the results are. We find that whatever misalignment we detected in our previous work disappears in this data set.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14168.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14168

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat, 2007. "Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2005. "Estimating China's "Equilibrium" Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 05/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chinn, Menzie D, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Virginie Coudert & Cecile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. MD. Chinn, 2000. "Three measures of East Asian currency evaluation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 205-214, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tatom, John, 2008. "Imbalances in China and U.S. Capital Flows," MPRA Paper 11706, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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