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De la flexibilité du taux de change et de ses conséquences macroéconomiques : la détermination des taux d'intérêt et des taux de change dans le modèle MIMOSA

Author

Listed:
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Murielle Fiole
  • Emmanuel Fourmann

    (AFD - Agence française de développement)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper presents a first attempt to endogenize exchange rates and interest rates in the MIMOSA multinational macroeconometric model, jointly built and used by the CEPII and the OFCE. We briefly survey the hypothesis, structure and properties of the main models proposed by the economic theory : expectations specification, monetary policy description, wealth effect and external constraint. Others multinational models specifications are classified. Then, we justify the choice of a specification combining a portfolio approach, monetary authorities reaction functions and semi-rational expectations by private agents. Estimation results for the financial behaviors and new simulation properties for the integrated MIMOSA model are then presented. At last, exogeneous financial hypothesis made by the MIMOSA team for its 1991 forecast are evaluated using the new integrated model.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Murielle Fiole & Emmanuel Fourmann & Henri Sterdyniak, 1992. "De la flexibilité du taux de change et de ses conséquences macroéconomiques : la détermination des taux d'intérêt et des taux de change dans le modèle MIMOSA," Post-Print hal-03458155, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458155
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1992.1273
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    2. David T. Coe & Richard Herd & Marie-Christine Bonnefous, 1987. "International Investment-Income Determination in INTERLINK: Models for 23 OECD Countries and Six Non-OECD Regions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 45, OECD Publishing.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    4. Deborah J. Danker & Richard A. Haas, 1985. "Small empirical models of exchange market intervention : applications to Germany, Japan, and Canada," Staff Studies 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2007. "On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time - Consistent Economic Policies," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01066080, HAL.
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    8. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.

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