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On the denomination of government debt: a critique of the portfolio balance approach

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  • David K. Backus
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Abstract

We show that some classes of sterilized interventions have no effect on equilibrium prices and quantities. The proof does not require complete markets, Ricardian equivalence, monetary neutrality, or the law of one price. Moreover, regressions of exchange rates or interest differentials on variables measuring debt’s currency composition contain no information about the effectiveness of such interventions. Other interventions require changes in monetary and fiscal policy; their effects depend, generally, on the influence of these changes on the economy and not on the intervention alone. In short, sterilized intervention is not, as the portfolio balance approach indicates, an extra policy instrument.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 116.

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Date of creation: 1988
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:116

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Keywords: Debts; External ; Foreign exchange - Law and legislation;

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References

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1985. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lucas, Robert E., 1984. "Money in a theory of finance," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 9-46, January.
  3. Peled, Dan, 1985. "Stochastic inflation and government provision of indexed bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 291-308, May.
  4. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 199-217.
  6. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-90, October.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "The capitalization of income streams and the effects of open-market policy under fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 87-98.
  8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
  9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1987. "Trade and Exchange-Rate Dynamics in a Dynamic Competitive Economy," Working Papers 684, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier.
  11. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
  13. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  14. Warren E. Weber, 1986. "Do sterilized interventions affect exchange rates?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 14-23.
  15. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August.
  16. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August.
  17. Aschauer, David & Greenwood, Jeremy, 1983. "A Further Exploration in the Theory of Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 868-75, October.
  18. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Risk and the Macroeconomics of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Working Papers 0493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Paul R. Krugman, 1981. "Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Persson, Torsten, 1984. "Real transfers in fixed exchange rate systems and the international adjustment mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 349-369, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  2. Michael Kumhof & Stijn van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model," IMF Working Papers 07/72, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Alexandre Cunha, 2013. "On the relevance of floating exchange rate policies," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 357-382, June.
  4. Roberto Chang, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Reserves Accumulation, and Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004518, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: an empirical investigation of daily effects," Working Paper 9009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Ilan Goldfajn & Marcos Antonio Silveira, 2002. "Should government smooth exchange rate risk?," Textos para discussão 465, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  7. Boyer, Russell S., 2004. "Rethinking the role of NCBs in the EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 977-996.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Michael Kumhof, 2010. "International Currency Portfolios," 2010 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1992. "New results on the impact of central-bank intervention on deviations from uncovered interest parity," Working Paper 9207, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

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