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The Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency

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Author Info
Matthew Canzoneri
Robert E. Cumby
Behzad Diba
David Lopez-Salido

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Abstract

What are the macroeconomic consequences of the dominant role of the dollar in the international monetary system? Here, we present a calibrated two country model in which exports are invoiced in the key currency, and government bonds denominated in the key currency are held internationally to facilitate trade. Domestic government bonds and money are held in each country to facilitate domestic transactions. Our model generates deviations from uncovered interest parity that are as volatile as some empirical estimates, but much too small by others. Our model also speaks to some other empirical anomalies, such as the Backus - Smith puzzle. Shocks affecting asset supplies -- such as bond financed tax cuts, and open market operations -- have large effects in our model because they generate non-Ricardian changes in household wealth. Generally, shocks emanating from the key currency country do more to destabilize the world economy than equal sized shocks coming from the other country. Similarly, monetary and fiscal policy innovations in the key currency country are more potent than those in the other country. On the other hand, the key currency country is more vulnerable to financial market turbulence, such as a sell off of key currency bonds, which can lower consumption dramatically.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14242.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14242

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  4. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba & David Lopez-Salido, 2008. "Monetary Aggregates and Liquidity in a Neo-Wicksellian Framework," NBER Working Papers 14244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Piffaretti, Nadia F., 2008. "Reshaping the International Monetary Architecture and Addressing Global Imbalances: Lessons from the Keynes Plan," MPRA Paper 12165, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Piffaretti, Nadia F., 2009. "Reshaping the international monetary architecture : lessons from Keynes'plan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5034, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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