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Real Exchange-Rate Behaviour under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes

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Author Info

  • James R. Lothian

    (Fordham University)

  • Cornelia McCarthy

    (Fordham University)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the stability of the real exchange rate and the macroeconomic effects of alternative exchange-rate regimes, including currency union, on real exchange-rate behaviour. We focus on the Irish punt in order to exploit its diversity of experience over different nominal exchange rate regimes. We make both temporal and cross-country comparisons of real-exchange-rate stability for the Irish punt with sterling, the US dollar and the German mark. We reach two conclusions on the basis of our results. The first is that for Ireland, as for most other countries, purchasing power parity provides a reasonably good description of actual exchange rate behaviour over the long run. Our second principal conclusion concerns regime effects. Currency union appears to matter. The real exchange rates we analyse are unambiguously less variable under currency union than under alternative exchange-rate systems. Otherwise, however, we find no clear-cut differences in behaviour across regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0107002.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 19 Jul 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0107002

Note: Type of Document - Word; prepared on PC; to print on HP Deskjet 950C; pages: 25; figures: included . This draft November 2000, first draft December 1998 Forthcoming in the Manchester School
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Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Behaviour Fixed Floating Exchange Rate Regimes;

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References

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  1. Kenneth A. Froot & Michael Kim & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," NBER Working Papers 5132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December.
  3. Lothian, James R., 1990. "A century plus of Yen exchange rate behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 47-70, March.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Steven Husted & Mark Rush, 1990. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
  6. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  8. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  9. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  10. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries: strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability: A reply to Cuddington and Liang," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-764, October.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  12. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 5742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lothian, James R., 1998. "Some new stylized facts of floating exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 29-39, February.
  14. John FitzGerald & Fergal Shortall, 1998. "Exchange Rate Changes and the Transmission of Inflation," Papers WP096, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. James Lothian, 2000. "Comment on Schwartz," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 347-352, December.
  3. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2009. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4896, The World Bank.
  4. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
  5. Salah A. Nusair, 2006. "Real Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Industrialized Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 425-457, November.
  6. M. Hadzi-Vaskov & C.J.M. Kool, 2008. "Stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing: evidence from fixed exchange rate episodes," Working Papers 07-33, Utrecht School of Economics.
  7. Yougbaré, Lassana, 2011. "Exchange rate arrangements and misalignments: contrasting words and deeds," MPRA Paper 32362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Don Bredin & John Cotter, 2011. "Volatility and Irish Exports," Working Papers 200416, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  9. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H. McCarthy, 2003. "Currency Union and Real Exchange Rate Behavior," International Finance 0311008, EconWPA.
  10. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  11. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2008. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the largest root and the half-life," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 76-101, February.
  12. Berk, Jan Marc & Swank, Job, 2011. "Price level convergence and regional Phillips curves in the US and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 749-763, September.

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