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On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973

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  • Elliott, Graham
  • Pesavento, Elena

Abstract

Point estimates suggest mean reversion in real exchange rates; however, it still remains uncomfortable that models without any mean reversion are often compatible with data from the floating period. Studies with data over longer periods find mean reversion, but at the cost of mixing in data from earlier exchange rate arrangements. Pooling the floating period data potentially mixes country pairs with and without mean reversion. We examine tests for mean reversion for individual country pairs where greater power against close alternatives is gained through modeling other economic variables with the real exchange rate. By increasing the power of the tests we find strong evidence of mean reversion.

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  • Elliott, Graham & Pesavento, Elena, 2006. "On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1405-1430, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:6:p:1405-1430
    DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0080
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    Cited by:

    1. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2009. "Unit root quantile autoregression testing using covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 165-178, October.
    2. Matteo Pelagatti & Emilio Colombo, 2012. "Unpuzzling the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 221, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Hsien Chen & Han-Wen Tzeng, 2017. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in Eastern European countries: quantile unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 463-483, March.
    4. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2013. "Median-unbiased estimation in DF-GLS regressions and the PPP puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 455-464, February.
    5. J. M. Belbute & Júlio A. Delgado & Suzana C. Monteiro & Teresa E. Pascoa, 2016. "Measuring persistence in nominal exchange rate: Implications for Angola’s entrepreneurship and business development," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 6(3), pages 1180-1180.
    6. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    7. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1076-1093, October.
    8. repec:jss:jstsof:32:i02 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kim, Soyoung & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2010. "Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 555-569, April.
    10. Yang, Yang & Zhao, Zhao, 2020. "Quantile nonlinear unit root test with covariates and an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 728-736.
    11. Ching-Chuan Tsong, 2010. "Are Real Exchange Rates Mean Reverting in Developing Economies in Asia? A Covariate Stationarity Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 397-412.
    12. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2012. "Does extracting inflation from stock returns solve the purchasing power parity puzzle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 1097-1105, June.
    13. Kim, Jae & Choi, In, 2015. "Unit Roots in Economic and Financial Time Series: A Re-Evaluation based on Enlightened Judgement," MPRA Paper 68411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ilir Miteza, 2012. "The Law of One Price in Six Central and Eastern European Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(3), pages 581-596, September.
    15. Mauro Costantini & Claudio Lupi, 2013. "A Simple Panel-CADF Test for Unit Roots," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 276-296, April.
    16. Fossati, Sebastian, 2012. "Covariate unit root tests with good size and power," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3070-3079.
    17. Matteo Pelagatti & Emilio Colombo, 2015. "On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 904-923, September.
    18. Yi-Hua Wu & Eric Lin, 2011. "Does purchasing power parity hold following the launch of the euro? Evidence from the panel unit root test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-172.
    19. Kaddour Hadri & Eiji Kurozumi & Daisuke Yamazaki, 2015. "Synergy between an Improved Covariate Unit Root Test and Cross-sectionally Dependent Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(6), pages 676-700, December.
    20. Eiji Kurozumi & Daisuke Yamazaki & Kaddour Hadri, 2012. "Covariate Unit Root Test for Cross-Sectionally Dependent Panel Data," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-256, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    21. Jae H. Kim & In Choi, 2017. "Unit Roots in Economic and Financial Time Series: A Re-Evaluation at the Decision-Based Significance Levels," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, September.
    22. Cheng-Feng Lee & Ching-Chuan Tsong, 2011. "Covariate selection for testing purchasing power parity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1923-1933.
    23. Lupi, Claudio, 2009. "Unit Root CADF Testing with R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 32(i02).

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