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Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates

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  • Christopoulos, Dimitris K.
  • León-Ledesma, Miguel A.

Abstract

The recent literature on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has emphasized the role of two phenomena that may lead to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis: structural breaks and non-linear adjustment induced by transaction costs. These two hypotheses are analyzed separately in the literature. We develop tests for unit roots that account jointly for structural breaks and non-linear adjustment. Structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function that allows for infrequent smooth temporary mean changes and is hence compatible with long-run PPP. Nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an ESTAR model. Our tests present good finite sample properties. The tests are applied to a set of 15 OECD countries' RERs and are able to reject the null of a unit root in 14 cases. The breaks are usually associated with the great appreciation and later depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s and the ESTAR adjustment appears to play an important role.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 1076-1093

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1076-1093

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Fourier model ESTAR Nonlinear adjustment PPP;

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Cited by:
  1. Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
  2. He, Huizhen & Ranjbar, Omid & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Old wine with new bottle," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-32.
  3. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2011. "Panel Unit Root Test with Nonlinear Mean Reversion and Smooth Breaks," MPRA Paper 53602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, March.
  5. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Wu, Chien-Wei & Chiu, Hsien-Hung & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Covariate unit root tests under structural change and asymmetric STAR dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 101-112.
  6. Snaith, Stuart, 2012. "The PPP debate: Multiple breaks and cross-sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 342-344.
  7. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Suvankulov, Farrukh & Su, Yongyang & Chau, Frankie, 2012. "Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: Evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 810-816.
  8. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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