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Optimal Power for Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors With Known Parameters for Nonstationarity

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  • Graham Elliott
  • Michael Jansson
  • Elena Pesavento

Abstract

In situations where theory specifies a potential cointegrating vector amongst integrated variables, it is often required that one test for a unit root in the constructed cointegrating vector. Although it is common to simply employ a univariate test for a unit root for this test, it is known that this does not take into account all available information. We show here that in such testing situations a family of tests with optimality properties exists. We use this to characterize the extent of the loss in power from using popular methods, as well as to derive a test that works well in practice. We also characterize the extent of the losses of not imposing the cointegrating vector in the testing procedure. We apply various tests to the hypothesis that price forecasts from the Livingston data survey are cointegrated with prices, and find that although most tests fail to reject the presence of a unit root in forecast errors the tests presented here strongly reject this (implausible) hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2005)
Issue (Month): (January)
Pages: 34-48

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:23:y:2005:p:34-48

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sahbi Farhani & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ilhan Ozturk, 2014. "Coal Consumption, Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions in China and India," Working Papers 2014-225, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Graham Elliott & Elena Pesavento, 2005. "Higher Power Tests for Bilateral Failure of PPP after 1973," Emory Economics 0502, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  3. Barbara Rossi & Elena Pesavento, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up or Down?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 96, Econometric Society.
  4. Rossi, Barbara & Pesavento, Elena, 2003. "Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up or Down? A Little Evidence from an Agnostic Procedure," Working Papers 03-23, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  5. Elena Pesavento, 2005. "Residuals Based Tests for the Null of No Cointegration: An Analytical Comparison," Emory Economics 0503, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  6. Elliott, Graham & Pesavento, Elena, 2006. "On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1405-1430, September.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2002. "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4v35s2gv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  8. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, 01.
  9. Fossati, Sebastian, 2011. "Covariate Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Working Papers 2011-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  10. Girardi, Riccardo & Paruolo, Paolo, 2013. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 643-653.
  11. Ladislava Grochova & Ludek Kouba, 2010. "Elite Political Instability and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evidence from the Baltic States," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2010-01, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  12. Chandran Govindaraju, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The dynamic links between CO2 emissions, economic growth and coal consumption in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 310-318.
  13. Elena Pesavento, 2006. "Near-Optimal Unit Root Tests with Stationary Covariates with Better Finite Sample Size," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/18, European University Institute.

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