Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up or Down?
AbstractThis paper analyzes the robustness of the estimate of a positive productivity shock on hours to the presence of a possible unit root in hours. Estimations in levels or in first differences provide opposite conclusions. We rely on an agnostic procedure in which the researcher does not have to choose between a specification in levels or in first differences. The method uses alternative approximations based on local-to-unity asymptotic theory and allows the lead-time of the impulse response function to be a fixed fraction of the sample size. These devices provide better approximations in small samples and give confidence bands that have better coverage properties at medium and long horizons than existing methods. We find that a positive productivity shock has a negative effect on hours, as in Francis and Ramey (2001), but the effect is much more short-lived, and disappears after two quarters. The effect becomes positive at business cycle frequencies, as in Christiano et al. (2003)
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 96.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
Technology shocks; persistence; impulse response functions; Real Business Cycle.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barbara Rossi & Elena Pesavento, 2006.
"Small-sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1135-1155.
- Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2004. "Small Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons," CEPR Discussion Papers 4536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rossi, Barbara & Pesavento, Elena, 2003. "Small Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons," Working Papers 03-19, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi (Duke) & Elena Pesavento (Emory), 2004. "Small sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 364, Econometric Society.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2002.
"Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt4v35s2gv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2000. "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariances," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt47k7z69n, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, . "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates," Economics Working Papers 2000-6, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson & Elena Pesavento, 2003.
"Optimal Power For Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors with Known Parameters for Nonstationarity,"
0303, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson & Elena Pesavento, 2005. "Optimal Power for Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors With Known Parameters for Nonstationarity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 34-48, January.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003.
"What Happens After a Technology Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Gali, 1999.
"Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicates Gali's AEA 1999 VAR results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00062, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galí, Jordi, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 2001. "Confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 155-181, July.
- Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
- Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, .
"Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective,"
Faculty Working Papers
03/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Moreno, Antonio, 2009. "Technology Shocks And Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 580-604, November.
- Cantore, Cristiano & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2010.
"Shocking stuff: technology, hours, and factor substitution,"
Working Paper Series
1278, European Central Bank.
- Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, 02.
- Cristiano Cantore & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2013. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, and Factor Substitution," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0913, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Ghent, Andra, 2006. "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper 180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2010.
"Identification of Technology Shocks in Structural Vars,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1284-1318, December.
- Fève, Patrick & Guay, Alain, 2009. "Identification of Technology Shocks in Structural VARs," TSE Working Papers 09-028, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2007. "Identification of Technology Shocks in Structural VARs," Cahiers de recherche 0736, CIRPEE.
- Fève, Patrick & Guay, Alain, 2006. "Identification of Technology Shocks in Structural VARs," IDEI Working Papers 383, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2005. "A flexible finite-horizon identification of technology shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 832, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2010. "A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock," Working Papers 2005-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.