IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v44y2013i3p1217-1242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing the persistence of real exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Malliaropulos
  • Ekaterini Panopoulou
  • Theologos Pantelidis
  • Nikitas Pittis

Abstract

We propose a new methodology for decomposing the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). By directly comparing the impulse response function (IRF) of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, where the real exchange rate is Granger caused by a set of candidate variables, with the IRF of the equivalent ARMA model for the real exchange rate, we capture the effects of the Granger-causing variables on the half-life of deviations from PPP. Our empirical results for a set of 20 industrial countries suggest that on average around 50% of the persistence of real exchange rates can be attributed to nominal interest rate differentials, inflation differentials and relative business cycle position with the numenaire country. Finally, we provide confidence intervals for the contributions of the aforementioned variables to the persistence of deviations from PPP by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis & Nikitas Pittis, 2013. "Decomposing the persistence of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1217-1242, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:1217-1242
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0565-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-012-0565-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-012-0565-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
    2. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    3. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    4. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
    6. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    10. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
    11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    12. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    13. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    14. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    15. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 328-355, September.
    16. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
    18. Rogers, John H., 1999. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-288, December.
    19. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    20. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    21. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    22. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
    23. Christian Murray & David Papell, 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 783-790, October.
    24. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
    25. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    26. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    28. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
    29. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    30. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    31. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
    32. William Haraf & Thomas D. Willett, 1990. "Monetary Policy for a Volatile Global Economy," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53262, June.
    33. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
    34. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, August.
    35. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    36. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paraskevi Tzika & Theologos Pantelidis, 2021. "The contribution of Economic Policy Uncertainty to the persistence of shocks to stock market volatility," Discussion Paper Series 2021_11, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    3. Wen-Yi Chen & Tsangyao Chang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2018. "Investigating the Persistence of Suicide in the United States: Evidence from the Quantile Unit Root Test," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 813-833, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Theologos Pantelidis, 2006. "The Contribution of Growth and Interest Rate Differentials to the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp135, IIIS.
    2. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    3. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    4. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    5. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 327-340.
    7. Terra, Cristina & Valladares, Frederico, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 119-144, January.
    8. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    9. Dimitrios Sideris, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates over a Century: The Case of the Drachma/Sterling Rate, 1833-1939," Working Papers 66, Bank of Greece.
    10. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    13. Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
    14. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2013. "How Puzzling Is The Ppp Puzzle? An Alternative Half‐Life Measure Of Convergence To Ppp," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 435-457, April.
    15. Gabriel Rodriguez & Indira Romero, 2007. "The role of permanent and transitory components in the fluctuations of Latin-American real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(21), pages 2713-2722.
    16. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    17. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007-24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    19. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
    21. David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Persistence measures; VAR; Impulse response function; PPP; F31; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:1217-1242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.