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How Puzzling is the PPP Puzzle? An Alternative Half-Life Measure of convergence to PPP

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  • Georgios Chortareas

    (University of Essex)

  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

The lengthy half-lives of real exchange rates in the presence of high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical regularities in international macroeconomics. This paper suggests that the measure of half-life used in the literature might be problematic and suggests an alternative measure. Empirical analysis suggests that use of the new measure may shed light on the PPP puzzle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 with number 36.

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Date of creation: 03 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc05:36

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Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html

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  1. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  2. Ng, Serena, 2003. "Can sticky prices account for the variations and persistence in real exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 65-85, February.
  3. Choi, Chi-Young & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2006. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 921-938, June.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
  6. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2004. "Does "Aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 10304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September.
  9. Fung, Hung-Gay & Lo, Wai-Chung, 1992. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 553-70, November.
  10. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Working Papers 517, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  11. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  13. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  15. Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2001. "A Bayesian Analysis of the PPP Puzzle using an Unobserved Components Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-105/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  16. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajsek, 2000. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  21. Manzur, Meher, 1990. "An international comparison of prices and exchange rates: a new test of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 75-91, March.
  22. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?," Working Papers halshs-00559170, HAL.
  2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2007. "Measuring Regional Market Integration in Developing Asia: a Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 8, Asian Development Bank.
  3. Qian Chen & David E. Giles, 2007. "A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the Half-Life Estimator in an Autoregressive Model: New Insights Into the PPP Puzzle," Econometrics Working Papers 0703, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  4. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2007. "Deterministic impulse response in a nonlinear model. An analytical expression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 315-319, June.

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