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Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices

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Richard Baldwin

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the hypothesis that hysteresis has occurred in US aggregate non-oil import prices. We find strong evidence that a shift has occurred in the exchange rate pass-through relationship in the 1980~~ and that the nature of the shift is consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis. Results on two specific structural models of this phenomenon (the beachhead model and the bottleneck model) are less conclusive. The data broadly support both models, but neither by itself can provide a convincing accounting of all the evidence.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2483.

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Date of creation: Jan 1988
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2483

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Hysteresis in Trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-42.
  2. Schmalensee, Richard, 1982. "Product Differentiation Advantages of Pioneering Brands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 349-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nelson, Phillip, 1970. "Information and Consumer Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 311-29, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bean, Charles R, 1987. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-11, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-1), pages 1-56. [Downloadable!]
  8. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacqueline Dwyer & Christopher Kent & Andrew Pease, 1993. "Exchange Rate Pass-through: The Different Responses of Importers and Exporters," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9304, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2004. "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers 2003-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Carlo Gola, 2000. "Export pricing strategy of Italian firms: from the depreciation of the lira to the euro," LIUC Papers in Economics 77, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard C. Marston, 1991. "Pricing to Market in Japanese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 2905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ramon Moreno, 1991. "Explaining the U.S. export boom," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 39-52. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Ansic & Geoffrey Pugh, . "An experimental test of trade hysteresis: market exit and entry decisions in the presence of sunk costs and exchange rate uncertainty," Working Papers 002, Staffordshire University, Business School.
  7. I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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