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Exchange Rate Cycles and Canada- U.S. Manufacturing Prices

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  • Baldwin, John R. Yan, Beiling

Abstract

During the post-1970 period, Canadian manufacturing prices have alternately increased and fallen relative to U.S. prices' just the reverse of the cycle in the Canada' U.S. exchange rate. But not all manufacturing industries have experienced the same amplitude of relative price changes. This paper examines the industry characteristics that are related to the shifts in competitiveness, measured as the relative price ratio between Canadian prices and U.S. prices adjusted by the exchange rate. We find that relative factor input costs and relative productivity growth are the two most important factors influencing changes in relative Canada' U.S. prices. Competitive pressures emanating from trade are important determinants of the extent to which relative productivity differences are passed through to cross-country relative prices in the manufacturing sector. We also find that the magnitude of domestic market competition and export intensity affects the short-run relative price shifts over the cycle of exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch in its series Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series with number 2006041e.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:stc:stcp5e:2006041e

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Keywords: Manufacturing; International trade; Prices and price indexes; Trade patterns; Intercity and international price comparisons;

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  1. Bloch, Harry, 1992. "Pricing in Australian Manufacturing," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(203), pages 365-76, December.
  2. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  3. John A. Karikari, 1988. "International Competitiveness and Industry Pricing in Canadian Manufacturing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 410-26, May.
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  5. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  6. Baldwin,John R. & Gorecki,Paul With contributions by-Name:Caves,Richard E. With contributions by-Name:Dunne,Tim With contributions by-Name:Haltiwanger,John, 1995. "The Dynamics of Industrial Competition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521465618, November.
    • Baldwin,John R. & Gorecki,Paul With contributions by-Name:Caves,Richard E. With contributions by-Name:Dunne,Tim With contributions by-Name:Haltiwanger,John, 1998. "The Dynamics of Industrial Competition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633574, November.
  7. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  8. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-85, September.
  9. Subramanian Rangan & Robert Z. Lawrence, 1993. "The Responses of U.S. Firms to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Piercing the Corporate Veil," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 341-379.
  10. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
  11. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Baldwin, John R. Harchaoui, Tarek, 2002. "Productivity Growth in Canada," Productivity Growth in Canada, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division, number stcb6e, May.
  13. Baldwin, John R. Maynard, Jean-Pierre Tanguay, Marc Wong, Fanny Yan, Beiling, 2005. "A Comparison of Canadian and U.S. Productivity Levels: An Exploration of Measurement Issues," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2005028e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  14. Stanley W. Kardasz & Kenneth R. Stollery, 1998. "Determinants of domestic and import prices in Canadian manufacturing industries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 593-610.
  15. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1995. "Markup adjustment and exchange rate fluctuations: evidence from panel data on automobile exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 289-310, April.
  16. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S. Domestic Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 505-11, August.
  17. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1988. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  19. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  21. John R. Baldwin & Beiling Yan, 2004. "The Law of One Price: A Canada/U.S. exploration," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(1), pages 1-10, 03.
  22. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  23. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Adjustment costs and pricing-to-market theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 1-30, February.
  24. Stanley W. Kardasz & Kenneth R. Stollery, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and its determinants in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 719-738, August.
  25. Alexius, Annika, 1999. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 90, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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