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Wages and Prices in Europe: A Test of the German Leadership Thesis

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  • Artis, Michael J
  • Nachane, Dilip M

Abstract

The paper presents various tests of the hypothesis that, through the mechanism of the European Monetary System. Germany exercised a counter-inflationary leadership role in the 1980s. Evidence is provided that expectations of German inflation may be thought of as having impacted more strongly on expectations of inflation in other EMS countries in the EMS period than on non-EMS countries (the UK) and in earlier periods. Co-integration tests show inflation rates in partner EMS member countries to be cointegrated with inflation in Germany in the EMS period, but the same is true for the UK suggesting that the EMS arrangements could not have been responsible. Co-integration tests also reveal that bilateral exchange rates have not been particularly stable in this period and do not follow P.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 296.

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Date of creation: Mar 1989
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:296

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Keywords: European Monetary System; Inflation; Prices; Wages;

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References

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  1. Artis, Michael J & Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "Exchange Rates and the EMS: Assessing the Track Record," CEPR Discussion Papers 250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  3. Ormerod, Paul, 1982. "Rational and Non-Rational Expectations of Inflation in Wage Equations for the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 49(196), pages 375-87, November.
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51.
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Cited by:
  1. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
  2. S. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 231-233.
  3. Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
  4. Robert Anderton & Ray Barrell, 1995. "The ERM and structural change in European labour markets: A study of 10 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 47-66, March.
  5. C.J.M. Kool & A. Lammertsma, 2004. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes:The European Evidence 1974-1998," Working Papers 04-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
  6. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
  7. Michael Artis & Wenda Zhang, 1998. "The linkage of interest rates within the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 117-132, March.
  8. Clemens Kool & Alex Lammertsma, 2005. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974–1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, January.
  9. Bessec, Marie, 2003. "Mean-reversion vs. adjustment to PPP: the two regimes of exchange rate dynamics under the EMS, 1979-1998," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 141-164, January.
  10. G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," THEMA Working Papers 2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  11. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A reply," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 587-593, September.
  12. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1993. "Common stochastic trends and inflation convergence in the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 129(2), pages 207-215, June.
  13. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Nicolien Schermer, 2008. "Europeanization or Globalization? Transnational Wage Bargaining and the Distribution of Activity in European Labor Markets," DNB Working Papers 186, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  14. M. Demertzis & A. Hughes Hallett, 2000. "Wage Inflation and the Distribution of Output Gaps in Europe: Insiders vs. Outsiders," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 631, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  15. Nicholas Sarantis & Chris Stewart, 2000. "The ERM Effect, Conflict and Inflation in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 25-43.
  16. Robert Anderton, 1997. "Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 22-38, March.
  17. Lucio Sarno, 2000. "Systematic sampling and real exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 24-57, March.
  18. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2009. "The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 153-161.
  19. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
  20. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2001. "Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 477-487, July.

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