IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/opecrv/v29y2005i1p37-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Abbas Alavirad
  • Sanhita Athawale

Abstract

In this paper, we measure and analyse the impact of budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. After briefly reviewing the theoretical background, we use univariate cointegration tests, such as the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Phillips‐Hansen methods, to study the relationship between the two in the long term. Additionally, we use the error correction model to study the behaviour of the model in the short run. Our analysis is based on time series annual data from 1963 to 1999 and our results show that budget deficits, as well as liquidity, do have a significant impact on inflation rates in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:37-49
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0277-0180.2005.00142.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0277-0180.2005.00142.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0277-0180.2005.00142.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    3. Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary & Naved Ahmad, 1995. "Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 945-956.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. O. Cevdet Akcay & C. Emre Alper & Suleyman Ozmucur, 1996. "Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey," Working Papers 1996/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Barnhart, Scott W. & Darrat, Ali F., 1988. "Budget deficits, money growth and causality: Further OECD evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-242, June.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Hamburger, Michael J. & Zwick, Burton, 1982. "Deficits, money and inflation : Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 279-283.
    10. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    11. De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albert Makochekanwa, 2011. "Impact of Budget Deficit on Inflation in Zimbabwe," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 49-59, December.
    2. Alireza Ghadertootoonchi & Maryam Fani & Masoume Bararzadeh, 2020. "The effect of energy subsidies on the sustainability of economy, society and environment: A case study of Iran," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(2), pages 93-129.
    3. Kia, Amir & Jafari, Mahboubeh, 2020. "Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Kandil Magda & Mirzaie Ida A., 2017. "Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Bonato Leo, 2008. "Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 41-58, January.
    6. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    7. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Luvanda, Eliab, 2021. "Fiscal Deficit and its Threshold Effects on Inflation in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(1), December.
    8. Kreiter, Zebulun & Paul, Tapas Kumar, 2010. "Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MPRA Paper 45981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dizaji, S.F., 2011. "Analysis of domestic price and inflation determinants in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 530, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    10. Hemantha K.J. Ekanayake, 2012. "The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?," ASARC Working Papers 2012-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    11. Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad Mazhar & Ali, Amanat & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Panel Data Analysis for selected Saarc Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 152-170, September.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Algeria: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    2. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    3. Abbas Alavi Rad & Mohammad Ali Dehghan, 2006. "The effect of oil exchange receipts on import in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 30(4), pages 235-248, December.
    4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    5. Chow, Sheung Chi & Vieito, João Paulo & Wong, Wing Keung, 2019. "Do both demand-following and supply-leading theories hold true in developing countries?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 536-554.
    6. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    7. Bingham, Matthew F. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & MacNair, Douglas J. & Abt, Robert C. & Bingham, Matthew F., 2003. "Market structure in U. S. southern pine roundwood," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 97-117.
    8. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Partial versus full system modelling of cointegrated systems an empirical illustration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 177-210, September.
    9. Joseph, Kishore & Garcia, Philip & Peterson, Paul E., 2016. "Does the Boxed Beef Price Inform the Live Cattle Futures Price?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236166, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    12. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    14. Jan Lemmen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 1995. "The quantity approach to financial integration: The Feldstein-Horioka criterion revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 145-165, April.
    15. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    16. Österholm, Pär, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems –A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions," Working Paper Series 2003:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    17. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    18. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Kühl, Michael, 2010. "Bivariate cointegration of major exchange rates, cross-market efficiency and the introduction of the Euro," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-19, January.
    20. Nigar Huseynli, 2023. "The Effect of World Oil Price on Türkiye’s Exchange Rate," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 304-310, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:37-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291753-0237 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.