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Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union

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Author Info
Michael Frömmel (Ghent University)
Robinson Kruse () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze the convergence of interest rates in the European Monetary System (EMS) in a framework of changing persistence. This allows us to estimate the exact date of full convergence from the data. A change in persistence means that a time series switches from stationarity to non-stationarity, or vice versa. It is often argued that due to the specific historical situation in the EMS the interest rate differential was non-stationary before the full convergence of interest rates was achieved and stationary afterwards. Our empirical results suggest that the convergence date has been very different for Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Italy and are in line with the conclusions one would draw from a narrative approach. We compare three different estimators for the convergence date and find that the results are quite robust. Our results therefore stress the importance of credibility for monetary policy.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-23.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 02 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-23

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Related research
Keywords: Interest rates; convergence; changing persistence; EMS; EMU;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Klaster, Michel A. & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2002. "Toward an econometric target zone model with endogenous devaluation risk for a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 509-529, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Wolff, Christian C, 1987. "Forward Foreign Exchange Rates, Expected Spot Rates, and Premia: A Signal-Extraction Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1995. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: An Alternative Interpretation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 45-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2003. "The Grip of History and the Scope for Novelty: Some Results and Open Questions on Path Dependence in Economic Processes," LEM Papers Series 2003/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-79, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. von Hagen, J. & Hallett, A.H. & Strauch, R., 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 148, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1996. "Interest rate convergence, capital controls, risk premia and foreign exchange market efficiency in the EMS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 693-714. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Vanessa Smith & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Tests for a change in persistence against the null of difference-stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 291-311, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
    Other versions:
  13. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kim, Jae-Young & Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Amador, Rosa Badillo, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series" [J. Econom. 95 (2000) 97-116]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 389-392, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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