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Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence

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  • Heinen, Florian
  • Sibbertsen, Philipp
  • Kruse, Robinson

Abstract

We consider the problem of forecasting time series with long memory when the memory parameter is subject to a structural break. By means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study we show that ignoring such a change in persistence leads to substantially reduced forecasting precision. The strength of this effect depends on whether the memory parameter is increasing or decreasing over time. A comparison of six forecasting strategies allows us to conclude that pre-testing for a change in persistence is highly recommendable in our setting. In addition we provide an empirical example which underlines the importance of our findings.

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File URL: http://www3.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/Forschung/Diskussionspapiere/dp-433.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover with number dp-433.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-433

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Related research

Keywords: Long memory time series; Break in persistence; Structural change; Simulation; Forecasting competition;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2013. "Testing for a Break in the Persistence in Yield Spreads of EMU Government Bonds," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-517, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. M. Frömmel & R. Kruse, 2011. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/722, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. Heinen, Florian & Willert, Juliane, 2011. "Monitoring a change in persistence of a long range dependent time series," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-479, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  4. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.

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