Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Testing for a rational bubble under long memory

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael Fr�mmel
  • Robinson Kruse

Abstract

We analyse the time series properties of the S&P500 dividend--price ratio in the light of long-memory, structural breaks and rational bubbles. We find an increase in the long-memory parameter in the early 1990s by applying a test recently proposed by Sibbertsen and Kruse [ J. Time Series Anal. , 2009, 30 , 263--285]. An application of the unit root test against long memory of Demetrescu et al. [ Econometr. Theory , 2008, 24 , 176--215] suggests that the pre-break data can be characterized by long memory, while the post-break sample contains a unit root. These results reconcile two empirical findings that are seen as contradictory: on the one hand, they confirm the existence of fractional integration in the S&P500 log-dividend--price ratio and, on the other, they are consistent with the existence of a rational bubble. The result of a changing memory parameter in the dividend--price ratio has an important implication for the literature on return predictability: the shift from a stationary dividend--price ratio to a unit root process in 1991 is likely to have caused the well-documented failure of conventional return prediction models since the 1990s.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2011.578151
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1723-1732

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:11:p:1723-1732

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
  2. Philipp Sibbertsen & Juliane Willert, 2012. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies and mean shifts," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 357-370, May.
  3. Peter C.B. PHILIPS & Yangru WU & Jun YU, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 19-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  4. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
  5. Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  6. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  7. Maureen O'Hara, 2008. "Bubbles: Some Perspectives (and Loose Talk) from History," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 11-17, January.
  8. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, 05.
  9. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
  10. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700, August.
  11. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  13. Owen Lamont, . "Earnings and Expected Returns," CRSP working papers 345, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  14. Hauser, Michael A, 1997. "Semiparametric and Nonparametric Testing for Long Memory: A Monte Carlo Study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 247-71.
  15. James Davidson & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2008. "Tests of Bias in Log-Periodogram Regression," Discussion Papers 0805, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  16. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares-Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, 05.
  17. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  18. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Robert Sollis, 2006. "Testing for bubbles: an application of tests for change in persistence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 491-498.
  20. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  21. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  22. Heinen, Florian & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Kruse, Robinson, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-433, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  23. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  24. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, 02.
  25. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
  26. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
  27. Craine, Roger, 1993. "Rational bubbles : A test," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 829-846.
  28. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
  2. Jörg Breitung & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "When bubbles burst: econometric tests based on structural breaks," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 911-930, November.
  3. Bond, Derek & Gallagher, Emer & Ramsey, Elaine, 2012. "A preliminary investigation of northern Ireland's housing market dynamics," MPRA Paper 39806, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:11:p:1723-1732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.