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Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies

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Author Info
Philipp Sibbertsen
Robinson Kruse

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Abstract

We show that tests for a break in the persistence of a time series in the classical I(0)/I(1) framework have serious size distortions when the actual data-generating process (DGP) exhibits long-range dependencies. We prove that the limiting distribution of a CUSUM of squares-based test depends on the true memory parameter if the DGP exhibits long memory. We propose adjusted critical values for the test and give finite sample response curves that allow easy implementation of the test by the practitioner and also ease in computing the relevant critical values. We furthermore prove the consistency of the test for a simple breakpoint estimator also under long memory. We show that the test has satisfying power properties when the correct critical values are used. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2009.00611.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Time Series Analysis.

Volume (Year): 30 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 263-285
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:30:y:2009:i:3:p:263-285

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares-Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  6. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Vanessa Smith & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Tests for a change in persistence against the null of difference-stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 291-311, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kim, Jae-Young & Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Amador, Rosa Badillo, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series" [J. Econom. 95 (2000) 97-116]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 389-392, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kruse, Robinson, 2008. "Rational bubbles and fractional integration," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-394, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dominique Guégan, 2009. "A Meta-Distribution for Non-Stationary Samples," CREATES Research Papers 2009-24, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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