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Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market

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Author Info
Kerstin Bernoth (De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), ZEI-University of Bonn. k.bernoth@dnb.nl)
Jürgen von Hagen (Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik, University of Bonn, CEPR, and Indiana University, Walter-Flex-Str. 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany, Tel: +49 228 73 9199, vonhagen@uni-bonn.de)
Ludger Schuknecht (European Central Bank, ludger.schuknecht@ecb.int)

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Abstract

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds issued between 1993 and 2005 on the basis of a unique dataset of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premiums which increase with fiscal imbalances and depend negatively on the issuer's relative bond market size. The start of the European Monetary Union has shifted market attention to debt service payments as the key measure of indebtedness and eliminated liquidity premiums in the euro area.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich in its series Discussion Papers with number 151.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:trf:wpaper:151

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Related research
Keywords: asset pricing; determination of interest rates; fiscal policy; government debt;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jan J.G. Lemmen & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 1999. "Credit Risks and European Government Bond Markets: A Panel Data Econometric Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 77-107, Winter. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Gravelle, Toni, 1999. "Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylized Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market," Working Papers 99-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2004. "The European Bond Markets Under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 4779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten & Hüfner, Felix, 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marta Gomez Puig, 2005. "Monetary Integration and the Cost of Borrowing," Working Papers in Economics 134, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mika Tujula & Guido Wolswijk, 2004. "What determines fiscal balances? An empirical investigation in determinants of changes in OECD budget balances," Working Paper Series 422, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gomez-Puig, Marta, 2006. "Size matters for liquidity: Evidence from EMU sovereign yield spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 156-162, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Heinemann, Friedrich & Winschel, Viktor, 2001. "Public deficits and borrowing costs : the missing half of market discipline," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-16, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715. [Downloadable!]
  16. Arnold, Ivo & Lemmen, Jan, 2001. "The Vulnerability of Banks to Government Default Risk in the EMU," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 101-25, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ludger Schuknecht & Jürgen von Hagen & Guido Wolswijk, 2008. "Government risk premiums in the bond market. EMU and Canada," Working Paper Series 879, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Cristina Arellano & Jonathan Heathcote, 2007. "Dollarization and financial integration," Staff Report 385, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Towards a Common European Monetary Union Risk Free Rate," NBER Working Papers 15353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2009. "Determinants of government bond spreads in new EU countries," Working Paper Series 1093, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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