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Price stability, inflation convergence and diversity in EMU: Does one size fit all?

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  • Weber, Axel A.
  • Beck, Günter W.
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    Abstract

    Using a unique data set of regional inflation rates we are examining the extent and dynamics of inflation dispersion in major EMU countries before and after the introduction of the euro. For both periods, we find strong evidence in favor of mean reversion (?-convergence) in inflation rates. However, half-lives to convergence are considerable and seem to have increased after 1999. The results indicate that the convergence process is nonlinear in the sense that its speed becomes smaller the further convergence has proceeded. An examination of the dynamics of overall inflation dispersion (?-convergence) shows that there has been a decline in dispersion in the first half of the 1990s. For the second half of the 1990s, no further decline can be observed. At the end of the sample period, dispersion has even increased. The existence of large persistence in European inflation rates is confirmed when distribution dynamics methodology is applied. At the end of the paper we present evidence for the sustainability of the ECB’s inflation target of an EMU-wide average inflation rate of less than but close to 2%. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2005/30.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200530

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    Keywords: Inflation Convergence; Deflation; ECB Monetary Policy; EMU; Regional Diversity;

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    References

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    1. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
    3. Hobijn, Bart & Franses, Philip Hans, 2001. "Are living standards converging?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 171-200, July.
    4. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
    6. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    9. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Economic Integration and the Foreign Exchange," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
    11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2000. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 7681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The Evolution of Price Dispersion in the European Car Market," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 811-48, October.
    13. Hercowitz, Zvi, 1981. "Money and the Dispersion of Relative Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 328-56, April.
    14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Meeting Maastricht: Nominal convergence of the new member states toward EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 507-515, March.
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:2668 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis and Stochastic Convergence in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 315-333, August.
    4. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:2522 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. Andrea Vaona & Guido Ascari, 2008. "Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Italy," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 0807, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    8. Guerreiro, David & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On price convergence in Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-51.
    9. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management, Romanian-American University, vol. 2(1), pages 289-316, July.
    10. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    11. repec:lan:wpaper:2442 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(4), pages 14-34, Winter.
    13. Claude Lopez, 2009. "Euro-zone Inflation Rates: Stationary or Regime-wise Stationary Processes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 238-243.
    14. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. repec:lan:wpaper:2440 is not listed on IDEAS

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