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A re-examination of the stationarity of inflation

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  • Steven Cook

    (School of Business and Economics, Swansea University, UK)

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    Abstract

    In a recent examination of the integrated nature of inflation, Culver and Papell (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997) applied a range of unit root and stationarity tests to data from a panel of 13 OECD economies. The results obtained were mixed. While little evidence of stationarity was detected using univariate methods, rejection of the unit root hypothesis was observed under panel data unit root testing, although rejection was found to be sensitive to cross-sectional variation. In this note the results of Culver and Papell are reconsidered in light of conditional heteroskedasticity detected in the inflation rate series. Using a more appropriate univariate testing procedure combining local-to-unity detrending and joint maximum likelihood estimation of a unit root testing equation and GARCH process, strong evidence in favour of stationarity is detected in 11 of 13 economies examined. In contrast to the univariate findings of Culver and Papell, the results obtained herein using an alternative univariate procedure provide evidence in support of their I(0) inference drawn using panel methods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 1047-1053

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    Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:6:p:1047-1053

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    1. Todd E. Clark, 2003. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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    10. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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    12. Perron, P. & Rodriguez, G., 2000. "Residual Based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Working Papers 0004e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
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    15. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
    16. Steven Cook, 2006. "The robustness of modified unit root tests in the presence of GARCH," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 359-363.
    17. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
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    Cited by:
    1. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Frequent episoded of high inflation and real effects," EcoMod2013 5478, EcoMod.
    2. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Making the most of High Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/01, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.

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