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Balanced growth and structural breaks: Evidence for Germany

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Author Info
Herzer, Dierk
Kemper, Niels
Zamparelli, Luca

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Abstract

One of the central hypotheses of the neoclassical growth literature is the balanced- growth hypothesis, which predicts that output, consumption, and investment grow at the same rate. Empirically, this implies that the consumption-to-output ratio and the investment-to-output ratio must be stationary and that consumption and investment must be cointegrated with output. This paper tests these implications with respect to Germany, using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for an endogenously determined structural break. We find that the long-run growth path of the German economy is consistent with the balanced-growth hypothesis if we allow for a structural break associated with the worldwide productivity slowdown of the early 1970s.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14944/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14944.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14944

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Related research
Keywords: Balanced growth × Unit roots × Cointegration × Endogenous structural breaks;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  4. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rainer Klump & Olivier de La Grandville, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  8. G?Mez, Manuel A., 2008. "Dynamics Of The Saving Rate In The Neoclassical Growth Model With Ces Production," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 195-210, April. [Downloadable!]
  9. Serletis, Apostolos & Krichel, Thomas, 1995. "International Evidence on the Long-Run Implications of the Neoclassical Growth Model," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 205-10, February.
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