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An Alternative Estimation to Spurious Regression Model

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Author Info
Shahidur Rahman (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)
Abstract

In sturdy econometrics specification search problems of unit roots and multicollinearity are well documented since the inception of regression analysis. In examining the likely consequences of nonsense relationship Granger and Newbold (1974) make it clear that first differencing is not the universal sure fire solution to problem of spurious regression models. This has prompted the discovery of cointegration regression estimation by Engle and Granger (1987). In recent years applied econometricians are debating with the problem of spurious regression model when the co movements between the variables are different. If the variables of the model are not cointegrated, there is a question whether the background economic or financial theory is plausible with the data that we are analyzing. This paper reviews the debate and proposes an alternative solution to the problem. Our approach uses a suitable data transformation of the variables of the model based on Hendry (1995) and Phillips (1998) approaches to reduce the spurious correlation, stochastic means and variances in standard level. In a non cointegrated USA information processing investment model, we apply our technique and found a meaningful solution.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre in its series Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series with number 0507.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:0507

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Related research
Keywords: Spurious Regression; Unit Roots; Cointegration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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  1. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  2. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. MacKinnon, James G & Magee, Lonnie, 1990. "Transforming the Dependent Variable in Regression Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 315-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Koenker, Roger, 2000. "Galton, Edgeworth, Frisch, and prospects for quantile regression in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 347-374, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Coulson, N Edward, 1992. "Semiparametric Estimates of the Marginal Price of Floorspace," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 73-83, March.
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  6. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Soderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 1996. "Applied Cointegration Analysis in the Mirror of Macroeconomic Theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 363-81, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "New unit root asymptotics in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 323-353, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C26-C52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ogaki, Masao, 1992. "Engel's Law and Cointegration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1027-46, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. John Freebairn & Bill Griffiths, 2006. "Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S1-S1, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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